The Vercis Desk.
Occasional research notes — published when there is a thesis worth your time, not on a calendar. Each issue takes one load-bearing market assumption and examines it with data and history. The teaser is open; the full write-up is for members. Non-discretionary research; not investment advice.
The hedge that fails first
The 10-year Treasury yield is up about a full point since the war began, and almost all of it has come through real yields, not inflation expectations. That is the regime in which bonds stop protecting stocks. Here is what drove it, what would change it, and where the next drawdown could come from.
Read the issue →The gap, back to 1970
The concentration signal that matters isn't how big the top 10 are — it's how far their share of index weight now runs ahead of their share of earnings. Here is how wide that gap is, and what happened the only two times it has run this wide before.
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